IndexBox has just published a new report on market analysis, forecast, size, trends and insights of the global whole fresh milk market. Below are a few of the key findings.

Global whole fresh milk market

The global whole fresh milk market was estimated at $798,4 billion in 2018, an increase of 1,7% from 2017. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of 2,5% from 2007 to 2018. The trend pattern remained consistent, with some noticeable fluctuations observed throughout the analysed period.

Consumption by country

The countries with the highest volumes of whole fresh milk consumption in 2018 were India (185 million tons), the United States (US) (99 million tons) and Pakistan (46 million tons), with a combined 39% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Brazil, China, Germany, Russia, France, New Zealand, Turkey, the Netherlands and the UK, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of whole fresh milk consumption among the main consuming countries was attained by Turkey. Other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whole fresh milk markets worldwide were India ($140,3 billion), the US ($87,4 billion) and Brazil ($67,7 billion), together accounting for 37% of the global market. They were followed by Pakistan, New Zealand, China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK), which together accounted for 27%.

Per capita consumption

In 2018, the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (4 626kg/person), followed by the Netherlands (877kg/person), Germany (417kg/person) and France (384kg/person). The world average per capita consumption of whole fresh milk was estimated at 110kg/person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the whole fresh milk per capita consumption in New Zealand was 2,1%. The Netherlands and Germany recorded average annual rates of per capita consumption growth of 2,4% and 1,8%, respectively.

Milk production by country

Approximately 846 million tons of whole fresh milk were produced worldwide in 2018, increasing by 2,2% against the previous year. Total output volume increased at an average annual rate of 1,9% from 2007 to 2018. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014, with an increase of 3,4% year-on-year. 

The countries with the highest volumes of whole fresh milk production in 2018 were India (185 million tons), the US (99 million tons) and Pakistan (46 million tons), with a combined 39% share of global production. Brazil, China, Germany, Russia, France, New Zealand, Turkey, the UK and the Netherlands together comprised 27%.

In value terms, whole fresh milk production amounted to $780,5 billion in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of 2,5% from 2007 to 2018. The trend pattern remained relatively stable.

Global number of producing animals

In 2018, the global number of animals for whole fresh milk output amounted to 821 million heads, rising by 1,7% against the previous year. This number increased at an average annual rate of 1,4% from 2007 to 2018. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009, when the number of producing animals increased by 3,3% year-on-year.

Average yield for whole fresh milk

In 2018, the global average yield for whole fresh milk output stood at one ton per head, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014, with an increase of 2,7% year-on-year. 

Top exporting countries

Global exports amounted to ten million tons in 2018, reducing by 11,5% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of 2,4% from 2007 to 2018. The trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations in certain years. 

In 2018, Germany (1,4 million tons), the Czech Republic (855 000 tons), the UK (822 000 tons), Belgium (746 000 tons), the Netherlands (741 000 tons), France (698 000 tons), Poland (606 000 tons) and Austria (582 000 tons) were the major exporters of whole fresh milk, together achieving 65% of total exports. Latvia (340 000 tons), Hungary (316 000 tons), Slovenia (284 000 tons) and Luxembourg (253 000 tons) each recorded a 12% share of total exports.

The average whole fresh milk export price stood at $696 per ton in 2018. In general, the whole fresh milk export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Imports per country

In 2018, approximately eleven million tons of whole fresh milk were imported worldwide, falling by 5,3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of 3,5% from 2007 to 2018. However, the trend pattern indicated noticeable fluctuations over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008, with an increase of 14% year-to-year. 

In 2018, Germany (2,5 million tons), distantly followed by Italy (1,2 million tons), Belgium (914 000 tons), the Netherlands (803 000 tons), Ireland (764 000 tons) and China (580 000 tons) were the largest importers of whole fresh milk, together making up 61% of total imports. Lithuania (480 000 tons), France (363 000 tons), Russia (238 000 tons), Croatia (206 000 tons), Poland (187 000 tons) and Romania (184 000 tons) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk imports into Germany stood at 5,7%. At the same time, China (57,8%), Croatia (21,9%), Poland (13,7%), Romania (13,1%), Lithuania (11,4%), Ireland (10,6%), Russia (6,5%), the Netherlands (6,1%) and Belgium (1,9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57,8% from 2007 to 2018. By contrast, France (1,5%) and Italy (3,1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

Average whole fresh milk import price 

In 2018, the average whole fresh milk import price amounted to $735 per ton, picking up by 4,7% against the previous year. However, over the period under review, the whole fresh milk import price continued to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017, when the average import price increased by 16% year-to-year. The global import price peaked at $802 per ton in 2013. However, from 2014 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Market forecast 2019 to 2025

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of 1,6% from 2018 to 2025. This is projected to bring the market volume to 946 million tons by the end of 2025. – IndexBox