South Africa’s summer crops could have a good start to the season as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show prospects of rainfall over most parts of the country. While this is a welcome development, it also means that planting activity in some areas could be slightly delayed. But this is not much of an issue as the planting window for most crops will remain open until December 2018, particularly white maize and sunflower seed in the western parts of South Africa.
So, while numerous factors such as the South African Rand/United States Dollar (ZAR/USD) exchange and the Chicago grain and oilseed price movements could influence the SAFEX grain and oilseed prices, we believe that the weather will be an important driver of prices during the next four months or so, specifically the new season contracts.
In today’s (29 October 2018) morning note, we explore the potential impact of the weather outlook per crop, but also comment on the recent data releases, with a key focus on SAGIS month figures. The SAGIS monthly data is important as it presents the monthly consumption figures as well as current stock or inventories. -Wandile Sihlobo
Wandile Sihlobo, head of economic and agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz, shares highlights in his update on agricultural commodity markets. Click here for the full report on agri markets for the major commodities.