The weather will remain central in the discussion of the domestic wheat market for some time as the crop is still at its early stages of development and requires moisture. Some wheat-growing regions, such as the Free State province are still at planting stages.
This morning (21 June 2018) the weather charts show a possibility of light showers of between 10 and 20 millimetres during the next eight days in the areas around the Swartland, Helderberg, Winelands and Overberg regions of the Western Cape. This will help sustain crops in fair condition in the Swartland and Overberg regions, while Swartland could be strained due to lower soil moisture (topsoil and subsoil).
The Western Cape still needs intense and persistent rainfall in order to sufficiently improve subsoil moisture. The recent showers in some regions have been helpful in terms of sustaining the crop and improving topsoil moisture. The Western Cape provincial dam levels averaged 32% in the week of 18 June 2018, up by 6 percentage points from the previous week and 11 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.
In our previous notes, we talked a bit about expectations of higher rainfall over the Western Cape during the next three months, leaning on the South African Weather Service and International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s forecast. These views have not changed. There is still some level of optimism regarding the weather in the medium term. – Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz
Wandile Sihlobo, head of economic and agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz, shares highlights in his update on agricultural commodity markets. Click here for the full report on agri markets for the major commodities.