IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Pork (Meat Of Swine) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings that was published here.
Despite the decline in pork consumption in the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK), domestic producers may receive support due to growing demand from China.
The EU and the UK together are the largest pork supplier to the global market, and the second-largest consumer in the world, only China is ahead. On the contrary, producers in China are facing serious problems due to the forced reduction in animal numbers in the wake of the African swine fever epidemic.
According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations forecasts, pork production in China may fall to 34 million tons in 2020, which is almost 17% lower than in 2018. The shortage of products in the local market is offset by growing supplies, mainly from Europe and Latin America, in particular Brazil. The United States (US), the world’s second-largest pork exporter, is losing the Chinese market as a result of a protracted trade war with Beijing, which imposed a 72% tariff on US pork in 2019.
In 2020, Europeans can not only enjoy an increase in supplies to China but also increasing world prices for pork. This is especially important when the borders for export to Russia are closed due to mutual sanctions. After four years, this market can be considered lost for the Europeans due to the rapidly growing production of Russian farmers.
Pork production in the EU and UK
In 2019, pork production in the EU reached 24 million tons and is likely to see steady growth in the years to come. The countries with the highest volumes of pork production in 2019 were Germany (5,4 million tons), Spain (4,6 million tons), and France (2,2 million tons), with a combined 53% share of total production.
From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2019, approximately 245 million animals were slaughtered for pork production in the EU, a decrease of 2% on 2018 figures. Overall, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015, when the number of producing animals increased by 2% year-on-year (y/y).
In 2019, the average yield of pork in the EU amounted to 93kg/head, approximately mirroring the year before. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015, with an increase of 1,8% y/y. The level of yield peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Consumption by country
The countries with the highest volumes of pork consumption in 2019 were Germany (4,5 million tons), Spain (3 million tons), and Poland (2,4 million tons), with a combined 47% share of total consumption.
From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while pork consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany (US$12,5 billion), Spain (US$8,9 billion), and Italy (US$5,5 billion) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together comprising 50% of the total market.
The countries with the highest levels of pork consumption per capita in 2019 were Denmark (115kg/person), Spain (65kg/person) and Poland (62kg/person).
Exports in the EU and the UK
In value terms, pork exports rose markedly to US$20,7 billion (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of 2,5% from 2009 to 2019. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 19% y/y. Over the period under review, exports reached the peak figure at US$21,2 billion in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports failed to regain the momentum despite the recent increase in shipments to China.
Exports by country
Germany (1,8 million tons) and Spain (1,7 million tons) were the main exporters of pork in 2019, recording near 23% and 22% of total exports, respectively. Denmark (958 000 tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by the Netherlands (12%), Belgium (8,5%) and Poland (5,7%). France (351 000 tons) occupied a little share of total exports.
From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Spain (US$5,1 billion), Germany (US$5 billion) and Denmark (US$2,7 billion) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, together accounting for 62% of total exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and France, which together accounted for a further 27%.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export prices by country
The pork export price in the EU stood at US$2,641/ton in 2019, picking up by 9,2% against the previous year.
Average prices varied somewhat among the major exporting countries. In 2019, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Spain (US$2,978/ton) and Germany (US$2,800/ton), while Poland (US$2,146/ton) and Belgium (US$2,186/ton) were among the lowest.
From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. – IndexBox AI Platform