IndexBox has just published its new tomato report – World – Tomato – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global tomato market revenue amounted to US$228 billion in 2017, up by 12% from the previous year (2016). This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of 3.7% over the period from 2007 to 2017; while the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Growth was the most pronounced in 2011, with an increase of 14% year-on-year). Global tomato consumption peaked in 2017 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Tomatoes may be classed as one of the world’s most important crops as a result of robust demand. They are consumed in two main segments, fresh and processed. Processed tomatoes include tomato paste and other canned tomato products. Each sector is developing in different ways: consumer segment growth is being generated by demand in the processing segment as demand for tomato paste is a driving force on the market.

In 2017 the global consumption of tomatoes amounted to 183 million tons (IndexBox estimate), increasing by 3.1% against the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of 2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2009, with an increase of 8.6% from the previous year. Over the period under review, global tomato consumption attained its maximum volume in 2017, and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

The US, China and India largest tomato consumers worldwide

The country with the largest volume of tomato consumption was China (59 million tons), accounting for 32% of total consumption with India at 19 million tons coming in second. The third position in this ranking was occupied by the US at 14 million tons with a 7.8% share.

From 2007 to 2017, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of tomato consumption in China stood at 5.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption: India (6.9% per year) and the U.S. (-0.5% per year).

As forecast by IndexBox, China, India and the US remain key consumers of tomatoes. Per capita incomes are expected to grow by around 8% in China with an increasing middle class. Given the ongoing process of urbanisation, the trend of increasing popularity of western-type fast food is significant for the food market in China, sharpening the demand for tomatoes. In India, this is also a factor, along with a large and growing population and their incomes.

In the US, tomatoes remain a popular product, with the main drivers of market growth being the popularity of tomato sauces and barbecues, and the growing consumption of fast food, where tomato paste and ketchup are used widely. On the other hand, the increased attention to health and the environment is also generating interest in organically produced tomatoes. The tomato processing industry in the US will remain strong, driven by not only domestic, but also global demand. Thus, tomato consumption in the US is to be shaped by population growth, not to mention a surge of new immigrants who eat vegetable-intensive diets.

Global tomato consumption is to continue robust growth

Since tomatoes are an established and popular product, there are currently no evident prerequisites for a change in consumer preferences. In this case, population growth and increases in household income are set to be key impetus factors with regard to the further expansion of the global tomato market. In addition, improvements in tomato harvesting and storage technology, combined with the establishment of more effective distribution networks will reduce crop losses and increase consumption.

The processing segment will continue to make a significant contribution to the further expansion of the tomato market. Tomato sauces remain a staple of global cuisine. It is forecast, therefore, that demand for tomato paste will remain steady, supporting the tomato processing sector. Demand for processed tomatoes will increase in the traditional regions and countries of consumption, such as the US, Canada and Europe, as well as in Asia. As a result of the rapid urbanisation process and the increasing popularity of Western-style cuisine and fast food in Asia, the ongoing use of both fresh and processed tomatoes for sandwiches, pizza and other products in fast food establishments should promote the growth of the tomato market.

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of 2.2% for the eight-year period from 2017 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 218 million tons by the end of 2025. – IndexBox

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