With small adjustments for wheat, maize and sorghum, the forecast for total global grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 is lowered by two million tons m/m (month-on-month), to 2,079 million tons, approximately 1% down y/y (year-on-year).
The outlook for US maize and sorghum are trimmed, but the figure for the Ukraine’s maize harvest shows an increase. Total consumption has decreased by one million tons, which is mostly linked to adjustments for feeding and industrial uses of wheat and sorghum.
The projection for stocks is unchanged m/m and is at a four-year low of 560 million tons, down by 58 million tons y/y. At 368 million tons, roughly equal to the previous season’s record, the trade forecast is reduced a little m/m, as cuts for wheat and sorghum are partly offset by increases for maize and barley. A rise of approximately 1%, to 220 million hectares, is projected for the total wheat harvested area in 2019/20.
Although gains are anticipated in the EU, Russia, the US and India, inclement weather in the early part of the growing season is of some concern. The global rapeseed/canola area may expand, despite an anticipated heavy fall in the EU. Largely on reduced US yield expectations, the forecast for world soya bean production in 2018/19 is trimmed by two million tons, to 367 million tons, albeit up by 8% y/y – a new record. With smaller carry-ins leading to a five million ton cut in total supplies, world ending stocks are placed three million tons lower m/m, at 51 million tons.
Nevertheless, this would still be a gain of around 30% y/y on prospects for heavy accumulation in the US. As a reduction in China’s imports is only partly offset by upgrades for other buyers, the projection of global trade is downgraded by three million tons, to 152 million tons.
Reflecting slow deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa, the prediction for rice trade in 2018 is cut slightly, but is steady y/y and above average amid robust buying in Asia. The 2018/19 global production outlook is fractionally higher y/y, at 491 million tons. Given a marginal increase for carry-ins, the net m/m rise in supplies is channelled to higher use and inventories, placed at 125 million tons (-2 million tons y/y). Trade in 2019 is seen at a record of 49 million tons, due to firmer demand from Africa and the Middle East. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) softened by 3% m/m. Except for maize, all the components were weaker. – Press release