The UK-based market research company, IndexBox, shares valuable information on the global avocado market in the report below.
In 2016, the avocado market increased to 5,8 million tons, expanding at 5,6% per year from 2007 to 2016. Over the last six years, the market displayed consistent growth. It accelerated sharply from 2011 to 2016 after a period of relatively flat trend patterns with mild fluctuations from 2007 to 2010. The market value also experienced a positive trend. However, there were more pronounced fluctuations.
In wholesale prices, the market totalled $13 797 million – a growth of 23% over the previous year. This figure reflects total revenue of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).
Top avocado consuming countries
The countries with the highest consumption were Mexico (17%), the United States (US) (16%), the Dominican Republic (10%), Indonesia (5%), Colombia (5%), Peru (4%), Brazil (3%), China (3%), Kenya (3%) and Rwanda (3%). The remaining countries together comprised nearly 31% of global consumption.
The highest annual growth rates of avocado consumption from 2007 to 2016 were recorded in the Dominican Republic, with 14,9% growth, and Peru, with 13,4% growth.
Consequently, the Dominican Republic (+5 percentage points) and Peru (+2 percentage points) strengthened their shares in terms of global consumption from 2007 to 2016. By contrast, shares of Mexico declined 24% in 2007 to 17% in 2016 over the period under review.
Among the leading consuming countries, high levels of per capita consumption were recorded in the Dominican Republic (54,6kg/year), which was more than five times the world average of 10kg/year. In this country, per capita consumption increased rapidly by 13,6% per year from 2007 to 2016.
Market is expected to grow
Avocado is a fruit native to Mexico and Central America, which has been widely planted and naturalised in other Latin American countries with tropical climates as well as in the United States (in Florida and California).
Although avocado is not a product of daily demand, it continues to gain popularity around the world since it contains lots of fibre and is rich in monounsaturated fats, vitamins and minerals. The avocado’s unique nutrition profile is combined with a pleasant taste.
Mexico and the US are the largest avocado consumers in the world. While Mexico is also the largest producer and exporter, the US mainly imports avocados from Mexico and partly exports its own avocados to neighbouring Canada.
Mexico has been increasing its shipments to the world market. Despite this, there is a shortage of supply due to the rapid growth in demand, which is reflected in price increases and growing investment in expanding avocado production.
Driven by growth of the Latin American population in the US, the promotion of healthy eating, as well as the inclusion of avocados in menus of ‘healthy fast food’ restaurants in large cities, the avocado market’s performance is set to continue its upwards consumption trend in the medium term. The performance of the market is forecast to grow with an anticipated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% for the period from 2016 to 2025, which is expected to lead the market volume to 7,6 million tons by 2025.
Mexico remains top producer
Production of avocados reached 5,7 million tons in 2016, which was equal to $13 268 million. Except for mild fluctuations at the start of the analysed period, production volume grew steadily.
Mexico was the key world avocado producing country with an output of roughly 1,9 million tons in 2016, which accounted for 33% of total global output. The country increased its output at the expense of expanding areas under avocado cultivation with the fairly flat yield. In general, the yield in Mexico corresponded to the world average and was significantly less than in other producer countries, such as the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Indonesia and Peru.
The other major producers were the Dominican Republic (11%), Peru (8%), Colombia (5%), Indonesia (5%), Brazil (4%), Chile (3%), Kenya (3%), the US (3%) and Rwanda (3%).
In Peru and the Dominican Republic, production levels increased by 15,8 and 14,1% annually from 2007 to 2016, attributed to growth of harvested area as well as yield improvement.
Global avocado exports
Avocados are a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output being approximately 32% in 2016. Moreover, this share increased by 10 percentage points from 2007, which is testament to the growth of its popularity. High trade intensity is primarily determined by the substantial distances between the main countries of avocado producing and key consuming countries.
Avocados will continue to be highly traded, fuelled by increasing consumption, trade liberalisation policies, and intense global and regional integration. However, the trade expansion could be restrained by softening the growth of avocados manufacturing and increasing domestic demand in some of the major exporting countries.
Mexico strengthens leadership
In 2016, global avocado export expanded to 1,8 million tons, which equated to $4 281 million in value terms. Over the last few years it underwent steady growth, with an average annual rate of 10,1% from 2007 to 2016. This, however, resulted from a sharp acceleration of the growth pace from 2012 to 2016, driven by rising supplies from Mexico to the US.
Mexico is a global leader in terms of avocado exports, with a share of approximately 50% of global imports in physical terms. In 2016, Mexico exported 927 000 tons, which accounted for 49% of its total avocado output. Of this amount, 75% was supplied to the US, where Mexican avocados held a 74% share of total consumption.
Besides Mexico, the largest global suppliers in 2016 were Peru (194 000 tons) and Chile (147 000 tons), with a combined share of 18% of global exports. The fastest growing suppliers from 2007 to 2016 were Mexico (13,4% per year) and Peru (20% per year), while exports from Chile remained relatively unchanged against its outset level. The Netherlands also showed a tangible export figure of 148 000 tons. Nevertheless, given a large amount of imports and the fact that no avocados are grown in the country, that should be referred to as re-exports.
US remains largest market
The volume of global imports totalled 1,9 million tons, which equated to $4 811 million in 2016. The imports trend pattern generally mirrored that of exports: these trade flows globally complement each other.
In 2016, the US (821 000 tons) remained the leading importer of avocados, alone comprising nearly 43% of the global imports. It was followed by, although lagging far behind, the Netherlands (186 000 tons), France (134 000 tons), the UK (96 000 tons), Spain (87 000 tons), Canada (78 000 tons) and Japan (74 000 tons). These countries constituted the leading destinations of avocado imports, together comprising another 34% of the global imports.
Among the major importing countries, the US (+10% per year) and the Netherlands (+15,6% per year) gained the highest annual growth rates from 2007 to 2016. However, while the US imports avocados for domestic consumption, the Netherlands re-exports more than 80% of imported products, mainly to Germany and other European countries.- IndexBox