Although this was a data-packed week in the South African agricultural market, there were no surprises or data prints in almost all the releases that changed the outlook. The adjustments in summer crop production forecasts do not change our view that South Africa’s grain and oilseed supplies are in good shape for the marketing year that ends early next year.
From October 2018 to February 2019, the weather will be a key focus in the summer grain market as this will be a period between planting and pollination of the crop.
Also encouraging to see was the upward revision of the winter wheat production estimate following poor harvest on the back of the Western Cape drought – a major wheat-producing province. Overall, all domestic grain and oilseed prices were under pressure compared to last week, partly due to large supplies and recovery of the rand against the US Dollar.
The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week (ending 21 September 2018). In terms of supply, South African farmers slaughtered 212 060 head of cattle in July 2018, down by a percentage point from July 2017 due to the herd rebuilding process after a reduction during the 2015/2016 drought. –Wandile Sihlobo
Wandile Sihlobo, head of economic and agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz, shares highlights in his update on agricultural commodity markets. Click here for the full report on agri markets for the major commodities.